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(Bloomberg Opinion) -- The tidal wave ofasylum seekers that hit Europe in 2015 is often stereotyped as an invasion ofpoorly qualified migrants destined to be charity cases in the receivingcountries. Recent research shows it’s not true. Germany, which welcomed theimmigrants and almost immediately regretted it, is likely to end up profitingfrom Chancellor Angela Merkel’s decision to let them in, especially if it keepstaking steps to ease these immigrants’ path to employment.

(彭博观点)人们常将2015年席卷欧洲的难民潮视为低素质移民的入侵,注定要成为接收国的慈善事件。最近的研究表明事实并非如此。德国,曾对这些移民表示欢迎,又几乎马上后悔这些政策,很可能会从总理安吉拉·默克尔让难民来德国的决策中获益,如果该国继续采取措施扩宽这些移民就业的道路,获益更大。

For a paper published earlier this year,Cevat Giray Aksoy from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development andPanu Poutvaara from the Leibniz Institute for Economic Research surveyedimmigrants from the refugee crisis about their reasons for leaving their homecountries. Their sample was constructed to mirror the geographic anddemographic patterns of migration across the Mediterranean during the crisis,as recorded by the International Migration Organization. They discovered that77% of respondents – those from Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia, Sudan and Syria –fled war and persecution, while the rest, mostly from Algeria, Morocco andseveral African countries, came for economic reasons.

在去年发表的一篇文章中,来自欧洲复兴开发银行的Cevat Giray Aksoy和来自莱布尼茨经济研究所的Panu Poutvaara对与那场难民危机有关的难民进行了调研,了解他们离开自己祖国的原因。根据国际移民组织的记录,他们的案例被用于构建反映这场难民危机期间穿越地中海迁移的地理和人口模型。研究者发现77%的受访者——他们来自阿富汗、伊拉克、索马里和叙利亚——因战争和迫害而出逃,而其他人,主要来自阿尔及利亚、摩洛哥和几个非洲国家,因为经济原因来到这里。

This in itself isn’t surprising: Most ofthe 2015-2016 immigrants were fleeing armed conflicts. But Aksoy and Poutvaaraalso made a more intriguing finding: Better-educated people are significantlymore likely to try to escape war and persecution than their less-educated compatriots.Those escaping conflict are, to a greater degree than economic migrants, aself-sexted group of people with decent job qualifications. In poor NorthAfrican countries, economic returns to education and skills are high enough forpeople to stick around rather than make a dangerous journey to Europe; but inIraq or Somalia, it’s the best-trained workers who suffer the biggest relativelosses, and thus have the greatest impetus to leave.

研究发现其本身并不叫人惊讶:大多数2015到2016年间的移民因武装冲突而出逃。但是Askoy和Poutvaara还有一个更有趣的发现:受教育程度更高的人比起他们受教育程度更低的的同胞,更有可能会试图远离战争和迫害。因战乱出逃的人,比因为经济原因出来的难民多得多,他们是一群拥有相当好的工作技能的人,他们懂得自我选择。在贫穷的北非国家,教育和技能的经济回报很高,足够人们在那里生活,而不是踏上一场去欧洲的危险旅程;但是在伊拉克或者索马里,接受最高级别培训的劳动者遭受到的相关损失最大,因此他们离开祖国的动机最强烈。

Moreover, these educated asylum seekerstend to choose destination countries with higher returns to skills – that is,those with relatively higher inequality: Germany, France and Italy over Sweden,the Netherlands and Austria. The less qualified tend to look for nations withquicker application processing and better social safety nets.

此外,这些受过教育的难民倾向于选择去技能回报更高的目的地国——也就是说,那些不平等程度相对更高的国家:德国,法国,意大利,而非瑞典,荷兰和奥地利。受教育程度低的倾向于寻找那些申请进度更快且社会福利保障更好的国家。

Obviously, European countries’ immigrationpolicies played a role in determining the destinations, but Germany ended up,all in all, with a positively self-sexted group of undocumented immigrants.These people, government statistics show, are anything but hopeless – Germanyjust needs to sort out how their qualifications correspond to its labor marketneeds.

显然,欧洲各国的移民政策在移民决定目的地时发挥了作用,不过德国最终迎来了一批积极进行自我选择的无证移民。政府数据显示,这些人充满希望——德国只需要解决他们的职业资格如何与本国用工市场需求相匹配即可。

That’s the principal bottleneck. German isone of the tougher European languages to master, and the country’s current rulescomplicate the recognition of diplomas and vocational training certificatesissued outside the European unx. Last year, just 36,400 foreign professional degrees were recognizedin Germany; even though that’s 20% more than in 2017, that’s a laughable numbergiven Germany’s status as a major landing place for immigrants (it added500,000 to its population in 2018).

那是最主要的障碍。德语是欧洲语言中掌握难度较高的语言之一,而该国现行规定使得认可欧盟以外地区出具的文凭和职业培训证书非常复杂。去年,仅有36,400个国外专业学位在德国被认可;虽然这比2017年高出了20%,考虑到德国作为移民主要登陆地这一数字仍很有限(2018年新增移民人数500,000人)。

Despite this high barrier for entering theGerman labor market, however, the refugees are increasingly finding work.According to Germany’s Federal Employment Agency, 35% of the refugees whoarrived in 2015 were employed in October 2018 – up from 20% a year before.According to the German labor unx DGB, 81% of college-educated refugees and45% of those with a vocational qualification work below their skill level, andthe wages they receive are significantly lower than the national average.Still, it’s a testament to the refugees’ tenacity that, just three years afterarriving, and likely without any knowledge of German, more than a third of themare gainfully employed.

尽管存在这样一个进入德国用工市场的高门槛,不过,越来越多的难民正在找到工作。德国联邦就业局表示,2018年10月,2015年来的难民中有35%的人找到了工作——比去年高出20%。德国工会DGB表示,81%接受过大学教育的难民以及45%有职业资格的的难民坐着低于他们能力的工作,而且他们的薪酬明显低于德国国内平均水平。这仍然是难民坚韧品质的证据,来到德国才三年,很可能对德国一点都不了解,而他们中超过三分之一的人已经找到工作。

Although Merkel’s open door policy highlyunpopular, the German parliament in June passed a law making it easier to workin Germany with a foreign qualification. Among other changes, it lifts therequirement for employers to prove that no German or European worker could befound to fill the job. This should help any newcomers, including the refugeesalready in Germany.

尽管默克尔的开放国门政策非常不受欢迎,今年六月德国议会通过了一部法律,这部法律让拥有国外资格认证的个人在德国工作变得更容易。在诸多改变中,这部法律取消了雇主需证明其雇员都是德国或欧洲公民的要求。这将会帮助到所有新来者,包括那些已经来到德国的难民。

It’s hard to expect the immigrants, many ofwhom went through unimaginable hardship, to adapt to life in a new countrywithin the first few years. But, given the self-sextion described by Aksoyand Poutvaara, Germany can expect its generosity to pay off. Integrationprograms are expensive, of course: Germany spent 15.1 billion euros ($16.7billion) on them last year. But then, it’s not more expensive than bringing upchildren and training them to take up the same jobs, and Germany’s populationwould have been decreasing without immigration, anyway.

很难相信这些移民,他们中的许多人经历了难以想象的艰辛,在短短几年里就适应了在一个全新国家的生活。不过,基于Aksoy和Poutvaara描绘的自我选择观点,德国人可以相信自己的宽厚会得到回报。当然,这些(难民)融入社会项目代价不菲:去年,德国在这些项目上投入了151亿欧元(合167亿美元)。但是,比起养育孩子并训练他们从事同样的工作,前者的代价更低,无论如何,要是没有移民,德国人口可能早就开始减少了。

Germany and other European countries justneed to ease the newcomers’ access to the labor market a little more. Aquicker, more automatic process for recognizing qualifications would almostcertainly pay off. After all, many of the refugees came in the hope of applyingtheir existing skills in the new country, and showing so little trust in theseskills is bad policy.

德国和其他欧洲国家只需要再放开一些让新来者进入劳动市场的途径。一套更快捷、更机制化的资格认证流程必定会带来好的效益。总之,这些难民里有许多人希望在新的国家运用自己现有的技能,而对这些技能表现出的信任不足并不是好的政策。